Piece 03 · 2026-04-26
The Four-Layer Structure of New Stagflation: Debt, AI, Quadruple Effects, War
Macro Research Team · 18 min read
Should new stagflation arrive, most observers will attribute it to war, or believe AI is the disinflationary solution. Both readings would be wrong. The true pathology is a layered system: US sovereign debt as foundation, AI as transformation engine, quadruple effects as transmission, war as accelerator.
Macro Structural Analysis
5-10 Year Structural View
Not a Trading Signal
Piece 02 · 2026-04-22
Stablecoins: A Token from a Private Game Parlor
Macro Research Team · ~15 min read
This is not a primer on cryptocurrency, nor a comparison of individual issuers. It asks a deeper question: when you hold a stablecoin, what are you actually holding? What risks does it inherit, what does it stack on top, and why does this system keep accelerating through institutional innovation precisely as sovereign large holders withdraw from the dollar?
Structural Analysis
0-5 Year Horizon
Not a Trade Signal
Piece 01 · 2026-04-22
Trump's Absolute Passivity: A Structural Analysis
Macro Research Team · 10 min read
This is not about personality, diplomatic style, or single-administration success or failure. It asks a deeper question: when a credit-currency hegemony enters a regime of elevated interest burden, declining fiscal elasticity, and narrowing policy time, why does the top decision-maker repeatedly display the same pattern of strong initiation at t=0 and rapid contraction at t=1+?
Structural Analysis
0-5 Year Horizon
Not a Trade Signal